ampersand wrote:Okay, Cid, so how do you pay for his potential?
You don't. There's no such thing. Incentive-heavy contracts are frowned upon in Major League Baseball.
ampersand wrote:Run stats assuming a drop off, or just hope that past performance does equal future performance?
I know this will sound arrogant, but I honestly believe I could be a passable GM. Won't go higher than "passable," but I feel I could pull that much off. So, here goes:-The first step you should take is to make sure that you are fielding a top-level medical staff.
This is the Red Sox' biggest problem with spending money: they spend it on injury-prone players who drag out 4-8 week injuries for an entire season. Some part of that has
to be on the medical staff that keeps having to re-diagnose Crawford. Failing that, you do an awful lot of research before you dole out your contract.-You should only spend money on a player that will help you in the short term.
Again, young guys just about to enter their prime aren't the big free agents. The big names are guys toward the end of their prime, who have already had "career years." Short term, star players will likely help you. In the long term, so much more can go wrong. They can get hurt. They can lose some of their skill. They could be named John Lackey.-Only pay for the genuine article.
I have no problem with a team ponying up for Pujols, even if it's a near certainty that he won't be a top-three player at the end of that contract he has with Los Anaheim, and even if he never turns back into the guy he was in St. Louis. The Angels had to pull the trigger. The potential benefits are too great to ignore. -Invest in people who aren't players.
Get a good pitching coach and sign him for the long term. Get great scouts. Hire someone from SABR to crunch numbers for you. I already mentioned the training staff, but there are also minor league coaches and all manner of front office personnel to land. Know what I'd add? A "fan ambassador," someone who is well liked in the area that can do press conferences and interviews. (Here the obvious choice would be Curt Schilling.) Done well, this will yield a sustainable model.-Spend the most money in-house.
The advantage that being the richest team in baseball gives the Yankees is that they get to keep Derek Jeter and Mariano Rivera around until they don't feel like paying those guys anymore. That's really THE advantage of having money--the ability to keep guys around. If you bring someone up through your farm, and they become a star for the big club, you should keep that person around. Not only does it help clubhouse chemistry to do so, but it makes the fans happy. If the Rays had this advantage, they'd be the scariest team in baseball.-Top out around $100-$125 million, tops.
Nobody should spend more than a million dollars per win. Right now, several teams do. You'll notice those teams tend to have plenty of common threads: older lineups, injury issues, chemistry issues, streaky play and underperforming veterans. You want a fair amount of people who are entering their prime, because some of them are going to break out and become great. High payrolls suggest teams are paying a lot of money to players who may very well have already peaked.
Hirschof wrote:I'm waiting for day you people start thinking with portals.