GOP Primary Tracking

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Re: GOP Primary Tracking

by collegestudent22 on Tue Jan 31, 2012 12:05 pm

It occurs to me, before the Florida GOP primary tonight, that if one was to replace Santorum with a Dalek that was deluded into thinking Americans were all Daleks as well, his rhetoric on foreign policy wouldn't change at all. Seriously, think about it. "Exterminate (Mooslims)! Exterminate (Commies)! Exterminate (Ruskies)!"

Frédéric Bastiat wrote:And now that the legislators and do-gooders have so futilely inflicted so many systems upon society, may they finally end where they should have begun: May they reject all systems, and try liberty; for liberty is an acknowledgment of faith in God and His works.

Count Axel Oxenstierna wrote:Dost thou not know, my son, with how little wisdom the world is governed?

collegestudent22: Crazy Person; Status: Offline; Posts: 6886; Joined: Fri Jun 08, 2007 10:02 am; Location: Gallifrey

Re: GOP Primary Tracking

by collegestudent22 on Wed Feb 01, 2012 4:14 am

Florida Primary Results:

Mitt Romney 769,367 46.4%
Newt Gingrich 529,929 31.9%
Rick Santorum 221,718 13.4%
Ron Paul 116,445 7%

Updated Estimated Delegate Counts (from primaries/caucuses):

Gingrich: 23 + 2 soft pledged
Romney: 59 + 7 soft pledged
Santorum: 7 soft pledged
Paul: 3 + 7 soft pledged

Gingrich is essentially done because of this. While he will struggle on, he missed getting on the ballot in many Super Tuesday states preventing him from getting around 500 delegates, and the states that go in February are mostly caucus states that, in 2008, went for Romney in large numbers (with Ron Paul in strong double digits in most). For instance:

Nevada (2008)
Mitt Romney 22,649 51.1% 18
Ron Paul 6,087 13.73% 4
John McCain 5,651 12.75% 4
Mike Huckabee 3,616 8.16% 2

Maine (2008)
Mitt Romney 2,837 51.67% 20
John McCain 1,176 21.42% 0
Ron Paul 1,002 18.25% 1

Minnesota (2008)
Mitt Romney 25,990 41.37% 38
John McCain 13,826 22.01% 0
Mike Huckabee 12,493 19.88% 0
Ron Paul 9,852 15.68% 0

Colorado (2008)
Mitt Romney 42,218 60.11% 22
John McCain 12,918 18.39% 0
Mike Huckabee 8,960 12.76% 0
Ron Paul 5,910 8.42% 0

Even in Florida, where Paul did not really campaign, he doubled his vote percentage (7% in 2012 compared to 3.23% in 2008). If that trend holds into these caucus states where he already had 15-20% in 2008, he would become more of a visible challenger to Romney.

Santorum, in my opinion, is a zombie now. He's getting crushed competing for the evangelical and GOP populist vote with Gingrich, and coming way behind in states that he should be doing well in if he were on track to win (or even compete). It's likely he will stay in until his funds dry up, but they will and he will drop out. Probably before or right after "Super Tuesday".

Still, it's quite likely that Romney will end up the nominee now - and promptly lose to Obama in November. The economy is not a business, and since Romney plans to run it as one (essentially fascism in a nutshell) instead of returning to an actually free market, I refuse to vote for him.

Frédéric Bastiat wrote:And now that the legislators and do-gooders have so futilely inflicted so many systems upon society, may they finally end where they should have begun: May they reject all systems, and try liberty; for liberty is an acknowledgment of faith in God and His works.

Count Axel Oxenstierna wrote:Dost thou not know, my son, with how little wisdom the world is governed?

collegestudent22: Crazy Person; Status: Offline; Posts: 6886; Joined: Fri Jun 08, 2007 10:02 am; Location: Gallifrey

Re: GOP Primary Tracking

by collegestudent22 on Mon Feb 06, 2012 9:29 am

Apparent Nevada Caucus Results - Feb 4, 2012 (according to the AP)

Code: Select all: Mitt Romney 16,486 50.1% Newt Gingrich 6,956 21.1% Ron Paul 6,175 18.8% Rick Santorum 3,277 10%

Estimated updated total delegate count:

Code: Select all: Mitt Romney 97 Newt Gingrich 31 Ron Paul 14 Rick Santorum 10

Some thoughts. First, this was horrible execution on the part of the Nevada GOP - the results should have been known long before now. In fact, based on some caucuses shown on the news, where Congressman Paul won handily (60% or so of the votes), the possibility of vote fraud is there as well. (And the blackout is apparently back, as all major news networks cut their coverage of the caucuses entirely after showing the video of these votes.)

Secondly, this is not good news for Mitt Romney. Turnout was so horrible (if it is the case that votes were not thrown away in fraud) that he, despite receiving about the same percentage as 2008, got over 6,000 fewer votes. Paul, despite receiving about the same number of votes, received a 5% boost.

Thirdly, this is not good news for the GOP in general, at least in Nevada. Possible vote fraud? Check. Extremely low apparent turnout? Check. Chaotic state level primary? Check. Bad news bears all around.

Frédéric Bastiat wrote:And now that the legislators and do-gooders have so futilely inflicted so many systems upon society, may they finally end where they should have begun: May they reject all systems, and try liberty; for liberty is an acknowledgment of faith in God and His works.

Count Axel Oxenstierna wrote:Dost thou not know, my son, with how little wisdom the world is governed?

collegestudent22: Crazy Person; Status: Offline; Posts: 6886; Joined: Fri Jun 08, 2007 10:02 am; Location: Gallifrey

Re: GOP Primary Tracking

by collegestudent22 on Wed Feb 08, 2012 7:29 am

Colorado Caucus:

Code: Select all: Rick Santorum 26,580 40.2% Mitt Romney 23,097 34.9% Newt Gingrich 8,457 12.8% Ron Paul 7,782 11.8%

Minnesota Caucus (91% reporting):

Code: Select all: Rick Santorum 21,164 44.8% Ron Paul 12,912 27.3% Mitt Romney 8,004 16.9% Newt Gingrich 5,061 10.7%

Missouri Primary (no delegates):

Code: Select all: Rick Santorum 138,957 55.2% Mitt Romney 63,826 25.3% Ron Paul 30,641 12.2% Newt Gingrich --- Not On Ballot

Estimated updated total delegate count (CNN):

Code: Select all: Mitt Romney 106 Newt Gingrich 38 Rick Santorum 22 Ron Paul 20

Thoughts:

First, the voters in these states must be complete idiots or something. Santorum just cannot win. At all. A statistical impossibility. He's off the ballot in enough states that he cannot win about a quarter of the delegates. So he needs to win something like 80% of the delegates from states he is on the ballot in. Proportional allocation means he cannot win. The same goes for Gingrich to a lesser extent, as well.

Second, the categorical rejection of Mitt Romney (and Gingrich) in Minnesota is very telling - Paul did very, very well there. Discounting Santorum, as he cannot possibly be the nominee, the possibilities are twofold:

Case 1 - Romney recovers and starts to do well again, including doing very well in states like Virginia, where his only competition is Congressman Paul. He then manages to pull enough delegates (another 1,000 or so) to become the nominee in Tampa regardless of the specific amount of delegates the other candidates get.

Case 2 - Romney is rejected as much or more by the party, including in states where the only "Not Romney" vote is Paul. This creates two scenario possibilities - one of which is far more likely than the other.

The more likely scenario is that the primary continues as so far, with Paul beating Romney in a couple of states, but not most of them. This would likely lead to Romney just barely making it or a brokered convention, wherein the choice is up in the air.

However, there is a remarkably less likely, but still tentatively plausible scenario where Paul ekes out a win by doing well in states like Virginia (46 delegates) and convincing much of the anti-Romney party that if they want a "Not Romney", he's their only real viable choice.

The answer as to which case will occur will be known by two things - the result of the Maine Caucus, released when they finish on Saturday, and the results of Super Tuesday (especially Virginia, which is difficult to predict, as Paul is the only competition for Romney, and Romney had dropped out before VA in 2008).

Frédéric Bastiat wrote:And now that the legislators and do-gooders have so futilely inflicted so many systems upon society, may they finally end where they should have begun: May they reject all systems, and try liberty; for liberty is an acknowledgment of faith in God and His works.

Count Axel Oxenstierna wrote:Dost thou not know, my son, with how little wisdom the world is governed?

collegestudent22: Crazy Person; Status: Offline; Posts: 6886; Joined: Fri Jun 08, 2007 10:02 am; Location: Gallifrey

Re: GOP Primary Tracking

by collegestudent22 on Sun Feb 12, 2012 12:41 am

Alright, so I'm basically talking to myself here, but I'm going to continue posting, just in case anyone actually cares. Plus, it lets me put some of my thoughts down into words, so there's that.

Maine Caucus (83.7% reporting):

Code: Select all: Mitt Romney 2,190 39.2% Ron Paul 1,996 35.7% Rick Santorum 989 17.7% Newt Gingrich 349 6.2%

Only three thoughts here:

-This is really bad news for Romney, despite the media attempting to create some fiction about how Paul can't win because Romney (allegedly) eked out a win in Maine. Earlier, I posted the 2008 results. In four years, Paul doubled both his vote total and percentage in Maine. Romney, on the other hand, dropped like a rock, ending up with 600+ fewer votes and a 12% cut in percentage. This is a state where, I would remind you, Romney came out with an absolute majority in a primary race he ended up losing to McCain. (The 200 vote gap is also so small that the final results - as a county that went for Paul last time was delayed due to weather - may actually be in favor of Paul. If they were, I'd bet that you DON'T hear it on the news networks. At this point, I want it to happen just to shut the media up.)

-The Republican Party has a choice. Pivot towards a message of real freedom - that given by Congressman Paul - or slowly die and go away. That's it. The youth are energized by and strongly supportive of Dr. Paul's message. It is, in general, the older voters that are so obsessed with beating Obama (and Kerry, Gore, and Clinton before that) that they have abandoned any semblance of principle (hence Bush, McCain, and Romney). However, as it stands now, these old voters, in their ignorance, will virtually guarantee another Obama term. The party would then, in my estimation, have two more election cycles to choose someone with a similar message to Paul's (his son and a few other Republicans in Congress have espoused such a viewpoint) or wind up as a shriveling husk in a corner waiting to die, on the life support given by the media and the remnant of older generations.

-I'm not keeping track of delegates any longer. The media's guesses at delegates from the caucuses don't fit the straw poll vote, nor do they factor in estimations of things that matter in terms of delegates (enthusiasm, organization, etc.) In fact, they seem to be based on a "anybody but Paul" standard - where Paul is estimated to get very few delegates (some media outlets gave him ZERO from Iowa where he was just behind first and second, which should have given him about the same number as them, etc.) to minimize him. Since I cannot estimate them accurately (and the media refuses to do so), I'm just going to point out that Congressman Paul likely will get more than the media claims he will, and leave it at that.

Frédéric Bastiat wrote:And now that the legislators and do-gooders have so futilely inflicted so many systems upon society, may they finally end where they should have begun: May they reject all systems, and try liberty; for liberty is an acknowledgment of faith in God and His works.

Count Axel Oxenstierna wrote:Dost thou not know, my son, with how little wisdom the world is governed?

collegestudent22: Crazy Person; Status: Offline; Posts: 6886; Joined: Fri Jun 08, 2007 10:02 am; Location: Gallifrey

Re: GOP Primary Tracking

by Deacon on Sun Feb 12, 2012 5:32 pm

Paul can't beat Obama anyway, so really, who cares? It's all for show.

Eric (the Deacon remix)

The follies which a man regrets the most in his life are those which he didn't commit when he had the opportunity. - Helen Rowland, A Guide to Men, 1922

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Re: GOP Primary Tracking

by collegestudent22 on Sun Feb 12, 2012 8:08 pm

Deacon, I never took you for a media shill. An idiot, sometimes, but never a media-led sheep. Guess I was wrong about that. You should watch a little less of wherever the hell you get your opinions from.

For the record, a USA Today/Gallup poll at the end of January shows that he CAN beat Obama, even ignoring the polling companies failures to properly account for youth votes, etc.

"Ron Paul, who has improved his national acceptability considerably in the past month, is behind Obama just by three points. Paul received 46 percent while Obama received 49 percent of votes from the registered voters.

Considering the survey's margin of error at plus or minus five points, Paul does have a chance of beating Obama in a direct duel."

Frédéric Bastiat wrote:And now that the legislators and do-gooders have so futilely inflicted so many systems upon society, may they finally end where they should have begun: May they reject all systems, and try liberty; for liberty is an acknowledgment of faith in God and His works.

Count Axel Oxenstierna wrote:Dost thou not know, my son, with how little wisdom the world is governed?

collegestudent22: Crazy Person; Status: Offline; Posts: 6886; Joined: Fri Jun 08, 2007 10:02 am; Location: Gallifrey

Re: GOP Primary Tracking

by collegestudent22 on Wed Feb 15, 2012 4:32 am

"I consider it completely unimportant who in the party will vote, or how; but what is extraordinarily important is this—who will count the votes, and how." - Joseph Stalin

Its actually true that media says Ron Paul can't win... well literally. They will not count his votes. So he cannot win. :glare:

And, oh my God. MSNBC actually has decent reporting on this:

Frédéric Bastiat wrote:And now that the legislators and do-gooders have so futilely inflicted so many systems upon society, may they finally end where they should have begun: May they reject all systems, and try liberty; for liberty is an acknowledgment of faith in God and His works.

Count Axel Oxenstierna wrote:Dost thou not know, my son, with how little wisdom the world is governed?

collegestudent22: Crazy Person; Status: Offline; Posts: 6886; Joined: Fri Jun 08, 2007 10:02 am; Location: Gallifrey

Re: GOP Primary Tracking

by collegestudent22 on Mon Mar 05, 2012 4:53 am

Michigan Primary:

Code: Select all: Mitt Romney 409,899 41.1% Rick Santorum 377,521 37.9% Ron Paul 115,712 11.6% Newt Gingrich 65,016 6.5%

Arizona Primary:

Code: Select all: Mitt Romney 216,805 47.3% Rick Santorum 122,088 26.6% Newt Gingrich 74,110 16.2% Ron Paul 38,753 8.4%

Washington Caucus:

Code: Select all: Mitt Romney 19,111 37.6% Ron Paul 12,594 24.8% Rick Santorum 12,089 23.8% Newt Gingrich 5,221 10.3%

Frédéric Bastiat wrote:And now that the legislators and do-gooders have so futilely inflicted so many systems upon society, may they finally end where they should have begun: May they reject all systems, and try liberty; for liberty is an acknowledgment of faith in God and His works.

Count Axel Oxenstierna wrote:Dost thou not know, my son, with how little wisdom the world is governed?

collegestudent22: Crazy Person; Status: Offline; Posts: 6886; Joined: Fri Jun 08, 2007 10:02 am; Location: Gallifrey

Re: GOP Primary Tracking

by Deacon on Mon Mar 05, 2012 5:39 pm

Ugh. Why do people keep voting for Santorum? And why did Ron Paul get so few votes in Arizona, which is generally a very hands-off state?

Eric (the Deacon remix)

The follies which a man regrets the most in his life are those which he didn't commit when he had the opportunity. - Helen Rowland, A Guide to Men, 1922

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Re: GOP Primary Tracking

by collegestudent22 on Mon Mar 05, 2012 10:30 pm

Deacon wrote:Ugh. Why do people keep voting for Santorum?

Lots of people, apparently, are still afraid of TEH GAYZ! Apparently, that's the issue that is life support for Republicans.

And why did Ron Paul get so few votes in Arizona, which is generally a very hands-off state?

"I like Ron Paul, but..." There seem to be a lot of people that are perfectly fine with our economy crumbling, our government interfering in our lives, and our money becoming worthless as long as we get to bomb country after country in the Middle East.

Because of that, I propose a new statement on this election: "It's NOT the economy, stupid." If Obama starts a war with Iran, he will win in November. If he does not, Romney (or even, much to my dismay, Santorum, if he pulls together a campaign that can catch Romney) has a good chance of beating Obama - as long as they emphasize the fearmongering against Iran and promise to start the war that Obama was "too soft" to.

Frédéric Bastiat wrote:And now that the legislators and do-gooders have so futilely inflicted so many systems upon society, may they finally end where they should have begun: May they reject all systems, and try liberty; for liberty is an acknowledgment of faith in God and His works.

Count Axel Oxenstierna wrote:Dost thou not know, my son, with how little wisdom the world is governed?

collegestudent22: Crazy Person; Status: Offline; Posts: 6886; Joined: Fri Jun 08, 2007 10:02 am; Location: Gallifrey

Re: GOP Primary Tracking

by The Cid on Tue Mar 06, 2012 10:15 pm

Without commenting, here's a picture of Mitt Romney looking like he is astonished by a camera.
Oops. Don't want to post other people's stuff. Here's a LINK to a picture of Mitt Romney looking like he is astonished by a camera.

EDIT: I lied. I'm totally making comments on that picture.

-Someone just off camera must be jingling a set of keys.

-"Yeah, Mr. Romney. It's going to be up on the internet in seconds and everything. It will be attached to a news article that my colleague is writing right now. ...No, I'm not magical, that's just how this works now. ...Yes, really."

-"Look, Mimsy (I like to think he calls his wife Mimsy. Or at least Lovey), that man is exposing himself to us. Why, just look at how he presents himself. This is a bold American, isn't he?"

-"Mitt, honey, see? I told you. Libertarians are an actual party in Massachusetts, so they can't vote for Ron Paul."

-CAMERAMAN: "Mister former governor, sir? If I can just ask one little favor. I know it's going to sound weird but...my friend and I have an argument going. He says that Rick Santorum is the most stereotypical "white guy" in the history of mankind to this point. Could you make that happy and surprised face for me and settle this once and for all?"

Hirschof wrote:I'm waiting for day you people start thinking with portals.

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Re: GOP Primary Tracking

by collegestudent22 on Tue Mar 06, 2012 11:55 pm

But I'm totally voting for that guy. He's the only one who copped to the issues that really matter. Hypothetical love of "cars" and the height of Michigan's trees being *just right*.

Ha, no. But seriously. I saw a CNN exit poll statistic where people over 65 only vote for Paul 2% of the time. When this country falls apart over the next twenty years, I'm blaming them - and it sucks because most of them will be dead by then anyway.

Frédéric Bastiat wrote:And now that the legislators and do-gooders have so futilely inflicted so many systems upon society, may they finally end where they should have begun: May they reject all systems, and try liberty; for liberty is an acknowledgment of faith in God and His works.

Count Axel Oxenstierna wrote:Dost thou not know, my son, with how little wisdom the world is governed?

collegestudent22: Crazy Person; Status: Offline; Posts: 6886; Joined: Fri Jun 08, 2007 10:02 am; Location: Gallifrey

GOP Primary Tracking

by Deacon on Wed Mar 07, 2012 2:48 am

That's why the AARP exists: screw the next generation and saving for retirement, we want free money NOW.

Eric (the Deacon remix)

The follies which a man regrets the most in his life are those which he didn't commit when he had the opportunity. - Helen Rowland, A Guide to Men, 1922

Deacon

Shining Adonis

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Re: GOP Primary Tracking

by collegestudent22 on Sun Mar 11, 2012 8:51 pm

A few more:

Code: Select all: State Gingrich Paul Romney Santorum 03/10 KS 14.4% 12.6% 20.9% 51.2% 03/10 WY 0.5% 12.2% 44.0% 27.5%

The reported Wyoming numbers (from County Conventions, not popular vote) seem strange to me, given that the popular vote at the precinct level was:

Paul - 20.83%
Gingrich - 7.83%
Romney - 38.99%
Santorum - 31.93%

Virgin Islands:

Code: Select all: Ron Paul 29% 112 Mitt Romney 26% 101 Rick Santorum 6% 23 Newt Gingrich 5% 18

Apparently, this counts (according to the MSM) as a win for Romney because *delegates*. In that case, I understand that Paul won Iowa, is currently winning Nevada and Wyoming, as well as some other caucus states where his delegate percentage surpasses the popular vote. How much on NOT seeing that reported on Fox News?

Romney won both Guam and the Northern Marianas Islands handily, however.

Frédéric Bastiat wrote:And now that the legislators and do-gooders have so futilely inflicted so many systems upon society, may they finally end where they should have begun: May they reject all systems, and try liberty; for liberty is an acknowledgment of faith in God and His works.

Count Axel Oxenstierna wrote:Dost thou not know, my son, with how little wisdom the world is governed?

collegestudent22: Crazy Person; Status: Offline; Posts: 6886; Joined: Fri Jun 08, 2007 10:02 am; Location: Gallifrey

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