Oh Crap, there goes the Neighborhood...

[Arres]

Frankly, I'm worried about NK playing their hand to hit ANYONE. Including, but not limited to all the places Adciv mentioned. Kim Jong Il is KEHRAZY. And not in the fun, wears his pants on his head when he's drunk crazy. He's "thinks he can actually kill people with impunity" crazy. So far, he can. I'd rather he keeps it in his own borders until someone gets the cajones to handle him, or God does it himself.

[Mav]

You're going to have to define crazy, because so far everything he's done has, at least in certain ways, worked to his benefit. This whole dicking around recently to push his successor into power seems to be working too. Crazy like a fox might be more applicable.

And just to note, I'm not advocating doing nothing, I'm just advocating not losing sleep over it yet.

[adciv]

Guam is a major US military installation along with a civilian population of about 170K. That's on an island of 3 square miles. Also, regardless of how you might want to define it, it is still part of the US, just like Pearl Harbor was on December 7th, 1941.

[JermCool]

Considering the UN is sticking to the sanctions that were to be considered an "act of war" and Kim hasn't done shit, I think it's time to call more of his bluffs. Board the ship off the coast of China. Shoot down the rocket. Prove how weak Kim's regime really is and maybe the people will start grumbling.

[Mav]

They won't know it even happens, but we should do it all the same. Prove to him we're call his bluff. He'll only go as far as he thinks he can intimidate us - and he knows that if we go to war, we'll win.

[Makh]

A North Korea- USA war would inevitably involve South Korea and I am not certain they are willing to interrupt their video game just for a war. On more serious note, I am curious to see how China will react with the escalation of crisis in the following weeks. They are the key to solve it. But I find them incredibly silent.

[Eihger]

China Gets involved and conquers North Manchuria I mean Korea, and refuses to give it back. Russia also wants Manchuria.. I mean Korea.

See People WILL assist America if a war breaks out, but for their own personal needs.

[JermCool]

A North Korea- USA war would inevitably involve South Korea and I am not certain they are willing to interrupt their video game just for a war. On more serious note, I am curious to see how China will react with the escalation of crisis in the following weeks. They are the key to solve it. But I find them incredibly silent.

In regards to South Korea, we gotta get some use out of the Katusa's. We paid enough for them.

China hasn't been entirely silent. They backed the latest UN resolution which is practically unheard of. Sounds to me like they've had about enough of the Kim Regime.

Now that I think about it, why was China so staunchly supporting Kim? Okay, sure - they were fellow communists. But aside from that, what did China gain? Instability in the region wouldn't really work in their favor. They would be able to do a lot more trade with a friendlier country.

[Mav]

Exactly. China benefits from North Korea as long as they pose a problem for the US, but will not support North Korea when it creates actual instability and harms China's potential profits.

[StruckingFuggle]

China Gets involved and conquers North Manchuria I mean Korea, and refuses to give it back. Russia also wants Manchuria.. I mean Korea.

See People WILL assist America if a war breaks out, but for their own personal needs.

Won't that just set up future instability in the region, too?

[Eihger]

China Wants that land, as long as North Korea gives them what they want they are happy, if they start a war China wont risk having North Korea occupied with American Troops so close to its borders.
Sure China will help, but they'll help in a way that makes them take the most of North Korea as fast as possible.

North Kore is useful to them as long as it keeps Americans out of China's back yard.

Also the Russian comment, though still valid was mostly a joke.

[Makh]

Now that I think about it, why was China so staunchly supporting Kim? Okay, sure - they were fellow communists. But aside from that, what did China gain? Instability in the region wouldn't really work in their favor. They would be able to do a lot more trade with a friendlier country.

It is hard to say since the balance is complicated in that area of the world. However I know they are not "staunchly" supporting Kim. They become more and more annoyed by their agressive stance everytime, just like Russia you know. They do not want instability (like any other country), but for reasons that I am not certain of, they do not want reunifikations either. China is close to many nations she considers "potentially hostile" like Taiwan, South Korea, Japan. India and China relations are fine, but they will eventually competes on many things in the next decades for their economy, natural ressources, energy, foreign investment, etc. Perhaps, and this is very big perhaps, they do not want reunifikation of South and North because it would become another dangerous political entity. For the moment, China trades with both side, although they are not big partner, especially the north that is more like beggar than trading partner. This is what I think, I may be wrong, but they prefer to have two unfriendly countries with each other next to them than one bigger and stronger country even if the North would cause more problem to South, like it happened with East Germany. China does not want drastik change in North Korea, but they will not tolerate a angry dog out of control next to her border as well. This is why I am curious to see how they will react, their diplomatic position is very delicate.

You know, there is a geopolitical theory of encircling China for more than one decade, I am sure you can google it. Some people say it is stupid and not realistic. But it would be deceptive to believe that China is not considering that eventuality.

[adciv]

I've heard the encirclement theory before, but if you look at a map and the countries that border China, it just doesn't seem to make sense. It has so much ocean access it can't be cut off. On land, there is Russia, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Mongolia, Pakistan, India, Nepal, Bhutan, Burma, Laos and Vietnam. Mind you, most of what I heard about claimed about encirclement if for why China helped out North Korea in 1950.

[Deacon]

reunifikations

I love it Sometimes I forget Makh is Russian (well, I mean, you know, not on the forefront of the mind when reading his posts, but every once in a while he lets something adorable slip. I wish I were as fluent in a tongue other than my own.

[Makh]

I can only blame my lazyness for not always using online dictionary or syntax guide.

I've heard the encirclement theory before, but if you look at a map and the countries that border China, it just doesn't seem to make sense. It has so much ocean access it can't be cut off. On land, there is Russia, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Mongolia, Pakistan, India, Nepal, Bhutan, Burma, Laos and Vietnam. Mind you, most of what I heard about claimed about encirclement if for why China helped out North Korea in 1950.

I think they represent it more as strategic encirclement. "Not encirclement" with literal geographic sense. I am not very familiar with that theory, what they are affraid of, but Beijing seems to take it very seriously.

Back on North Korea, while doing some search, this is what I found, it might interest some of you.