What is going on, US and A?

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adciv
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Re: What is going on, US and A?

Post by adciv » Mon Jul 30, 2007 6:58 pm

Bigity, got one that covers multiple days? Those ones are large single day drops, but I'd argue a 5% drop over a few days is more significant than a 3% drop followed by a 1% drop. Either way, it looks like the markets have stopped dropping.
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Re: What is going on, US and A?

Post by Bigity » Mon Jul 30, 2007 7:07 pm

They are measured by days in every site I could find (I didn't look overlong), but surely there are longer term drops tracked somewhere
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Re: What is going on, US and A?

Post by tnitnetny » Tue Jul 31, 2007 1:53 pm

I have a chart I use when I discuss investments with my customers. Unfortunately it is in a power point presentation from the company and I only have the viewer installed. I will try to see if I can find another copy of just that graph.

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Re: What is going on, US and A?

Post by Deacon » Tue Jul 31, 2007 2:31 pm

The "Print Screen" button on your keyboard (maybe PrtScn) can be helpful. Copies the screen to the clipboard, which means you can then paste it into your favorite image editing program (MS Paint?) and save it as an image.
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Re: What is going on, US and A?

Post by tnitnetny » Tue Jul 31, 2007 3:02 pm

Ok, I knew that, but for some reason I didn't think of it. I think it must be all of that alcohol that I consumed on my trip. The graph gives you the general idea of the market over the last century. I use this when I explain to my customers the benefits of investing, even in a Bear market.

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Re: What is going on, US and A?

Post by Deacon » Tue Jul 31, 2007 3:08 pm

Yeah, honestly a "bear market" (especially when it seems like a temporary downturn) just means there's a sale on stock :)
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Re: What is going on, US and A?

Post by adciv » Tue Jul 31, 2007 4:36 pm

That graph has some "fun" and must have been made by a marketer. It took me a bit to notice the "current cycle" in blue existed and that we weren't in a bear market.

Also, why are 1940?-1954? in red, they show gains. Hell, it was WWII. The economy was doing great during those years.
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Re: What is going on, US and A?

Post by tnitnetny » Tue Jul 31, 2007 5:22 pm

I'm sorry about the size of the graph, it looks a lot cleaner and bigger in the power point presentaion. The reason why the current period is in blue is because it hasn't been determined what kind of market we are in yet. You can talk to different market anaylsts and they will tell you different things.

The period of 1940-1954 is in red because we were still considered a Bear market. It can't be considered a Bull market until all of the loss is recovered. The period actually started in 1920 with the downturn. There was a lot of growth because of WWII and the market did improve, although we were also recovering from the stock market crash. If you look at the level of 1920 and 1954, they are equal. The market turned to Bull when we completely recovered and then moved upwards.

The point of the graph is to show that investing in the stock market is a wise choice. It doesn't matter what has happened in the past, it has always recovered and grown. It is never a good idea to pull your money out when there is a downward turn. I actually advise my customers the opposite. As Deacon put it, there is a sale on stocks. It is also better to diversify your portfolio by investing in the overall market through mutual funds instead of single stocks. There is more security in the overall market, as the graph shows, then in a single stock.

It's nice to finally talk about what I do for a living. :D

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Re: What is going on, US and A?

Post by Cyberliger777 » Tue Jul 31, 2007 8:52 pm

With all this information, I almost fell like investing. Now if only I had a little bit of money at the moment to spend. What would be a good site to look at?
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Re: What is going on, US and A?

Post by adciv » Tue Jul 31, 2007 9:59 pm

tnitnetny wrote:I'm sorry about the size of the graph, it looks a lot cleaner and bigger in the power point presentaion. The reason why the current period is in blue is because it hasn't been determined what kind of market we are in yet. You can talk to different market anaylsts and they will tell you different things.
It's not that it's blue, it's that it makes it appear at first glance that we are currently in a bear market.
The period of 1940-1954 is in red because we were still considered a Bear market. It can't be considered a Bull market until all of the loss is recovered.
1) That's not what the graph says. It says prolonged period of rising price of stocks, which would include the 1940-1954 period.
2) That's not what the graph shows. If it did, then 1954-1958 would be in red as well.
3) They really need a fourth color. Red is supposed to be prolonged falling prices and they use it for prolonged flat periods. (66-80)
The market turned to Bull when we completely recovered and then moved upwards.
The market turned Bull in 1940 when the prices kept going up, not when it recovered to the previous prices.
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Re: What is going on, US and A?

Post by Deacon » Tue Jul 31, 2007 11:28 pm

Cyberliger777 wrote:I almost fell like investing.
Telling.
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Re: What is going on, US and A?

Post by tnitnetny » Tue Jul 31, 2007 11:41 pm

I see why it can be misleading. The time periods for a bull and bear market are actually set after about 5-10 years by the market analysts. The graph is good, but it doesn't do a good job explaining what it means. I know of a better one but I can't get my hands on it, I have a huge poster in my office, I just can't seem to find a smaller version on the computer.

If you had a little money to spend, I would suggest getting an advisor. I'm not talking about the kind that you pay to give advice. Im talking about advisors that can actually not only show you products, but a wide range of products. I could take the opportunity to plug my company: http://www.nationwidefinancial.com. Like I said earlier, mutual funds are the way to go. It doesn't matter what type of market we are in, the long term gains will be there.

Some mutual fund carriers that may also have information, or if you want to use another company can point you in the right direction are:
Oppenheimer (my favorite mutual funds that I use a lot for my customers)
American Funds
Fidelity

Of course, I'm also free for advice :D

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Re: What is going on, US and A?

Post by Nukinblackmage » Wed Aug 01, 2007 2:01 am

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And this, intarwebs, is why I love gravity. Totally ignoring the fact that her definition of "good porn" differs GREATLY from mine, obviously.
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Re: What is going on, US and A?

Post by adciv » Wed Aug 01, 2007 2:05 am

I see why it can be misleading. The time periods for a bull and bear market are actually set after about 5-10 years by the market analysts.
And the blue only goes back to 05(?) *shakes head* Dam marketers.

Ah well. Here's one you might enjoy for that as well.
S&P 500 since it's inception.
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Re: What is going on, US and A?

Post by HTRN » Thu Aug 02, 2007 8:42 am

Cyberliger777 wrote:With all this information, I almost fell like investing. Now if only I had a little bit of money at the moment to spend. What would be a good site to look at?
Vanguard Index funds.


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