The NBA Playoffs

[heavybass]

Cause of my Irish heritage, I'm gonna be rooting for the Celtics

[The Cid]

As I promised, I'm going to do a little analysis and predicting.

Let's start with a disclaimer: while I am a sportswriter by trade, at the moment I only cover collegiate sports. Therefore, objectivity in matters of professional sports is still something I'm working on. Anyone who's read the "Yankee" thread or sat through our NFL arguments last winter can attest to such. So while I will be analyzing this, keep in mind I won't be claming to be objective. I am a Bostonian, and I am a Celtics fan. My bias is obvious as much as it is clear.

Also before I post my predictions, complete with bias, I am posting a picture from the press box at what is now called the TD Banknorth Garden. I was there covering a college hockey game, but when I got up to that level for the first time I stared straight ahead at those banners for quite a while.



(Now if you can put up with a little Celtic bias, please get a sandwich and a beer before reading what follows.)

[ampersand]

*Ampersand gets a sandwich and a Royal Cola. (Sorry, no beer. There is cooking wine, however.) *Ampersand wonders if there is a signature Bostonian sandwich?

[The Cid]

Amp: I'd call a Lobstah Roll a signature Boston sandwich.

Okay. Now with that picture up there to properly frame this, let me state and explain a few things of which I am certain. (Explanations in spoiler tags for sanity's sake. I'll warn you--this is a LONG post.)

1. Los Angeles and Boston make perfect rivals.

I can't think of two American places more different than greater Boston and greater LA. I'm certain that the toughest move to make in this country is from Boston to LA or vice versa. They're just two different worlds. Opposite sides of the country, we seem to live on different planes of existence. LA is a city spread out over a large area while Boston is packed into a relatively small area for a large city. It's warm in sunny in LA while the weather is entirely beyond prediction here. We drink Dunkin coffee, they drink chai tea and Starbucks. A cold pint of Sam Adams vs. a big, frosty margarita. Boston and LA are two entirely different worlds. This adds an aspect to Celtics-Lakers that even the ultra-heated Red Sox-Yankee rivalry doesn't have. Our baseball rivalry divides Connecticut and pits family members against each other constantly as the cities are so close. We're a lot closer to New York than LA, in more ways than simple geography. I'm sure any of our Angelinos that have traveled up here would attest to that. (Not that it's a bad thing though. I liked LA when I visited, I just felt like I left Planet Earth in order to get there.)

2. Kobe Bryant is not as good as Michael Jordan. Not even close.

You know why I bring this up: people are actually saying these things about Kobe. Now don't get me wrong: Bryant is an amazing player. He's one of the best in the league today and he'll be remembered by basketball fans long after he's retired. But to place him with the all-time greats, the Michael Jordan/Jerry West/Larry Bird set, is just absurd. For one, no other all-time great ever behaved like such a spoiled child. No other all-time great ran another all-time great out of town just to stroke his own ego. No other all-timer threw a teammate under the bus during the summer while demanding his team trade him away. Basketball is still a team sport, and as such to be among the best ever you have to be a consistent team player. That Bryant buckled down this winter and finally started acting like he played on the Lakers and not the Harlem Globetrotters is nice and all, but does that make up for all the years of prima donna behavior? (Also, I don't see Kobe scoring 55 against a great defensive team while fighting off the flu. Comparing ANYBODY to Jordan kind of demeans how good the guy was.)

3. Paul Pierce and this year's Ray Allen would not crack the roster on Russell or Bird's Celtics.

I feel similar about Paul Pierce to the way I feel about Bryant. I'll believe he's a team player when I see more than one season of it. Before Allen and Garnett showed up this guy was a ballhog, excuse machine and he would occasionally threaten to leave. He can shoot, yes, but he takes too many shots that he shouldn't. At least now that Allen's around he has decided he doesn't need to take so many threes. Allen is a very good player and I like to watch him play, but he's getting on in years. He's not so good on defense and he runs out of energy when he's out there too long. Five years ago he was one of the game's best active players, but people age.

4. The idea that Kobe Bryant is somehow more motivated than Kevin Garnett right now is absurd.

What does everyone say is driving Kobe? The urge to win without Shaq. Not the urge to make his team a dynasty, not the urge to win as a team, just a vendetta with the Diesel. (Again, there's the sign of an all-time great, right?) Garnett is driven to win to the point he starts headbutting things. He looks at the ceiling and screams so dramatically you could swear he was yelling "KHAAAAAN!" This is a guy who enters the game with the kind of attitude Godzilla takes while entering Tokyo.

5. This might not be the last time we see these two teams do this.

The Celtics' window is much smaller since Allen is starting to age quickly (although Rondo is maturing just as fast), but the Eastern Conference always leaves that window open. The window for the Celtics is 2 to 3 more years of a shot at the title with the guys they have now, and the Lakers are missing one of their best players until next season in Andrew Bynum.

6. That injury is going to bite LA in the ass.

Right now the Lakers have Pau Gasol and little else to deal with Kevin Garnett and Kendrick Perkins. This gives the Celtics a definitive rebounding advantage and could keep the Lakers out of the paint in general. Bynum would have made this a lot less of a glaring weakness for the Lakers. But if the Celtics can outrebound the Lakers like they did to the Pistons they stand a very good shot to win the series.

7. The biggest mismatch is at the coaching position.

I simply won't trust Doc Rivers until the Celtics win the title. I keep thinking he will find a way to botch this whole thing. Phil Jackson will certainly be prepared, as the guy is one of basketball's great winners. Every Celtic fan knows this and it scares us quite a bit.

8. Kevin Garnett might literally spontaneously combust at one point during this series. (See #4.)

9. In a tight series, I always pick the team with the best clutch player.

Throughout his career, Ray Allen has been consistently clutch. Sam Cassell has also come through in the clutch in his younger days. When the superstar is double-teamed and you're losing by 1 with seconds left, who takes the shot? For the Lakers, if it's not Kobe it's hard to say. The Celtics have more than one option for that last shot.

10. Black Mamba is a stupid nickname.

11. So is The Truth.

12. If the Lakers are to win, they have to do it in six games or less.

The Lakers are a young team with the exception of Kobe. A game seven NBA Finals situation against a team of veterans playing at home spells outright disaster. Even for a team with a Hall of Fame coach like the Lakers, it's just bad news. Los Angeles has to wrap this up in six if they're going to win. That's right--home court advantage actually means more to LA than it does to the Celtics, no matter how these playoffs have gone. That said, I think both teams will win once on the road.

13. The officiating is going to suck.

Oh, and while we're at it: people will still have to pay taxes and die in the future. Since we're on the easy ones, you know?

14. We will see more of Jack Nicholson in this series than we will see of Eddie House.

Why Doc Rivers refuses to play this guy in the postseason is anybody's guess, but I doubt he'll do it in the Finals. We're more likely to see Hugh Laurie than Eddie House.

15. No children in greater Boston will see games held on school nights.

9:15 local time start for East coast games. Gee, why not just call it "The Lakers Show with special guests the Boston Celtics" then? Already the NBA has given LA a crucial call. Sheesh.

16. We might see the first playoff series in Boston in any sport since the early 1990s in which "Yankees Suck" isn't an audible chant.

In fact, we might even hear "Beat LA" at Fenway Park.

17. Celtics in 7. MVP: Kevin Garnett.

[ampersand]

1. Agreed. Only other thing I would add is Los Angeles has to be the most foreign city in the world. Even more foreign than Tokyo. (And I've been to both cities.)
2. Agree as well. The only reason why the two are even connected at this point is that no one else currently has a chance to win six or more championships (and all with one team to boot). Now I do find it interesting that Bryant is now saying not to compare him to Jordan, and that he just wants to blaze his own trail. And he may have that opportunity to do that. But let it be said sports fans and media loves setting up and knocking down athletes on their pedestals.
3. I'm not big on sports history. It's interesting to read or hear about it, but I really could care less if current players would be make it on past glorified teams. You can only go by how good one team is against their contemporaries, really.
4. I think Kobe's desire to win without Shaq is now coupled with a new found desire (perhaps drilled into him by Jackson and by the Colorado trial) to win for his teammates. Having said that, I do agree that winning for the first time always trumps winning because someone says you couldn't win because of a past incident or person.
   (As an aside, Bill Simmons makes a really interesting argument that the reason why Boston took so many games to win their past conference series is partly due to his belief that it is much harder to urge a team on by saying "Everyone believed in us; we vindicated their belief!" than saying "Nobody believed in us!", the "Shocked the World" card. If I were a betting man, I might take Boston for the series; and the road team and the over for each game of the series.)
5. True, Boston is a little bit older, and more of a hired gun mentality than otherwise. (Aside: How about Joe "You Damn Right I'm Pissed" Dumars (note, it's a little over minute video) firing Flip Saunders? Very interesting. I understand Doc's sentiment that when you fire someone for having a successful, but not successful enough record, but you're not in coaching for the minor achievements. I expect the Pistons to jettison half the roster now.)
6. Agreed. I still think someone else on the Lakers will step up. It often happens that way at the Finals.
7. Oh, definitely agree, but I also think it's somewhat less of a factor than what many people think. It's not as player-demanding as baseball and soccer is, but coaching is not as much of a factor as it is in professional football.
8. That would be fabulous (Paul Pierce might combust too). While we're at it, can we have a new Kevin Garnet Gatorade commercial? A new one for each night of the series.
9. Kobe for LA, Maybe Ray Allen? I think Pierce might be more clutch in this series than Allen would normally be.
10. Blame it on Shaq.
11. Eh...we can blame it on Shaq too. As well as "Mr. Fundamental."
12. Very true. I think the key is going to be Games 1 & 2. If Boston wins both games at home, then it has a great chance to finishing this out in seven, as it probably means that neither team will win a game on the road.
13. And Mr. Sterns is perfectly fine with that. Until it can be shown that referees are bad because they're all betting on NBA games.
14. There's probably an Vegas parley bet on this very thing. (Along with more playing time: Eddie House or promotions for the ABC summer series, Wipeout?)
15. This has been a problem for a long stretch of time in sports television. Either television executives think that the male population of 18 - 35 year olds are just more likely to be night owls, or that they are more concerned with West Coast ratings than they are with East Coast ratings. (Which is why I want my dream job be located in the Mountain or Pacific Time Zone, despite the fact that prices there for apartments are just going to be insanely higher than they would be anywhere else, except for the Northeast, of course.)
16. I agree with your MVP pick if Boston wins. He may win it even if LA wins.

[ampersand]

Kevin Garnet might not have exploded, but Paul Pierce was on fire! Especially after his injury!

[The Cid]

While we're at it, can we have a new Kevin Garnet Gatorade commercial? A new one for each night of the series.

Only in basketball could commercials like that happen. In every other sport you would need to have already won a championship to get a commercial like that.

And Mr. Stern is perfectly fine with that. Until it can be shown that referees are bad because they're all betting on NBA games.

I will never for the life of me understand how Stern is supposedly the best commissioner in sports. The NFL is a teflon league--can't you give this title to the lawyers with Jedi mind powers? ("There is no steroid problem in football.")

Along with more playing time: Eddie House or promotions for the ABC summer series, Wipeout?

A) So we've went from million-dollar game shows to reality TV to reality TV 1.5 (profession-driven reality shows like Hell's Kitchen and The Apprentice) to MXC clones. Coming in 2010: The Truman Show?
B) I don't think Doc even allowed Eddie to take off the warmup clothes ballers wear over their uniforms last night. Eddie and Jack got equal time--but I think Jack has a closer seat to the floor than Eddie House does. (Allegedly ol' Jack paid 30 grand per seat for Game 1 tickets.)

The Celtics did a fantastic job of shutting down Kobe Bryant. I was very happy with Boston's second half performance in general. Also, that stubborn nature I keep slamming Paul Pierce for is exactly what won game 1 for the Celtics.

[ampersand]

I honestly did not think the Celtics would continue to do what they did against the Lakers (and especially against Bryant) in Game 1 in Game 2 (so far). Stat of the night: when the Celtics are up 12 points or more at the half, they are 53-12 in the regular season and 12-3 in the postseason. This game could get ugly.

[The Cid]

For thirty six minutes the Celtics looked awesome.

Those last twelve, not so much. But a win is a win, and the Celtics are getting close to the overall goal now.

[ampersand]

Reason why Boston just might win game three tonight. (Honestly, after this "revelation", expect a live look-in to the Ref's locker room and see what posh accommodations they have at the Staples center tonight. Heck, Stern may order all referees to be wearing microphones for the rest of the series.)

[The Cid]

Amp, why was that supposed to be a reason the Celtics might win? Not for nothin', but here's how this growing scandal applies to last night:

One of the allegations in the new attempt by Donaghy to not go to jail is that in 2005, the NBA instructed referees to single out one particular player because the owner of the other team complained to the media. (Many speculate that this is supposed to refer to a Houston-Dallas series, where Mark Cuban called out refs for not calling fouls on Yao Ming, but that was not specified in the actual allegation. Just so you know though, in game 3 and beyond, Ming was singled out and called for everything. Dallas won that series.)

For two games, everyone associated with the Lakers bitched about Kobe Bryant not getting any calls. Early on in game 3, Bryant got quite a few calls. (This did not go on very long, and I actually think the officials did a good job last night, and in the whole series so far actually. ...At least, "good" by the NBA's dubious standard anyway.)

So no, I don't think there was any concentrated "let's give Kobe a break" effort from the refs. But if the incident in 2005 really went down like this guy says it did, that would confirm what many sports fans have believed all along: that the NBA instructs referees to influence games in favor of certain players, teams and owners. BUT, let's not jump on his bandwagon just yet. It's easy to believe it, but he could also have made the story up from existing NBA conspiracy theories in a last-ditch effort to save himself from prison time.

It's something you might have thought to yourself, or heard somebody else say while watching an NBA game. "Man, the refs never call a foul on Jordan!" "Seems to me like the refs want LA to beat Sacramento." Stuff like that always used to sound like the last refuge of a fan of a losing team. Now an ex-ref is hinting at it.

I really, really, really hope he's still lying.

[ampersand]

I was being sarcastic, Cid.

Yeah, the guy is trying to shave off any bit of time he might get for being guilty. However, what is interesting is that he's saying this in a deposition, and most of this was said in November of 2007. If any of what he's saying was false, he would have been charged with another perjury/obstruction of justice crime already. (Granted, it may still be coming.)

All I know at this point is that Stern ought to be saying more than merely, "This is accusation of a very desperate man."

[Hirschof]

I really, really, really hope he's still lying

With what I've seen the last four years in the NBA playoffs... it isn't hard to believe.

He could be taking advantage of incidents that could look like tampering. Just like when your caught in a lie and looking for something to support your ass.

If this series goes seven, Cid, it will be even harder for me to believe that the NBA doesn't tamper with the games.

[The Cid]

Of course it isn't hard to believe, Hirsch!

For example: I'm sure you're just itching to point Joey Crawford out, but rest assured the rest of the sports world knows he's got it out for the Spurs for no good reason. We're all with you on that one--dude's an unabashed Laker fan. Joey Crawford's presence in a Laker game means the Lakers are more likely to win by quite a bit. In fact, this is the person who is probably directly harmed the most by these new allegations, because Crawford's issues with Tim Duncan were already public (he was suspended for it) and because almost every Spurs fan there is believes that he is blatantly against their team and always will be.

The game everybody thinks Donaghy was referring to when he says the sixth game of a series in 2002 was rigged to force a seventh--namely, the infamous Game Six between the Lakers and Sacramento Kings--is sure to go down in history as one of the most poorly-officiated events in sports history.

However, it's that game in particular that makes me reluctant to believe Donaghy. It just seems too convenient that the disgraced former ref would choose the two most obvious candidates for "fixed games" in his public revelations before Game 3.

These are problems that David Stern has done nothing to stop. NBA fans resign themselves to the idea that if a bad call is made in an important team, it'll be the more popular team (or the team in a larger market) that benefits from it. People said it about the draft lottery (it's believed the 1985 Lottery was rigged so Patrick Ewing would end up in New York), about Jordan (it did seem like he played by a different set of rules than everyone else), about the Shaq-and-Kobe Lakers (in particular that infamous 2002 Western final), and so many other teams/games/series it gets tough to count. There is a growing conspiracy theory around the league, and inevitably this will come back to bite the league.

Speaking of, I'd really love to compile a conspiracy theorist's history of the NBA. There's no other league that has this kind of rumor and lore around it. Nobody believes umpires give a wider strike zone to one team over another in baseball. (Although if you ask me, the home team DOES have a wider zone almost every time.) There are no conspiracy theories about bad calls in the NFL, although controversial calls decide games all the time. (Example: nobody, not even crazy old Al Davis, believes the "tuck rule game" was rigged, even if they believe it was a bad call.)

In the last decade or so, major sports have had a habit of big scandals showing up during their proudest moments. The steroid scandal in baseball came shortly after the home run boom was over, but while successful teams in pretty much EVERY large market were setting attendance records and making boatloads of money for MLB. The NFL had one of their greatest single-season teams ever derailed in one of the best games you're ever going to see, only to have to answer questions about video cameras and spies for two months afterward. The World Cup final will be remembered for a headbutt and a red card, not for the tie game and penalty shootout that wrapped around it. One can't be a world champion boxer without having innumerable skeletons in the closet. The NHL had two years of amazing playoff games and twelve years of post-Cold War inclusion of Eastern European players brought to a screeching halt when they canceled a season. Right as NASCAR was becoming as popular as it ever was around the turn of the century, one of its most popular drivers crashed and died on the biggest possible stage at the worst possible moment for the sport--something I think took the appeal right out of the race for a lot of people who were just starting to enjoy stock car racing.

And here you have the NBA--a sport that struggled to find wide appeal after Michael Jordan. A sport that wanted so desperately to include everyone. For the decade since Jordan left the Chicago Bulls, the NBA has tried to get itself back into the public consciousness. This year, now that most big markets have competing teams (though Chicago, Philly, Atlanta and New York all still stink) and now that there is plenty of star power to go around, you'd think the NBA would be poised to say "we're back where we want to be." But then, on the big stage, showcasing the big rivalry between two big markets, we have a big scandal. One that echos fan complaints to an eerie degree. One that could take the integrity of the NBA and put it below heavyweight boxing. One that will, for some fans, call into question the outcome of every game until Donaghy is either proven a liar (hard to prove from the NBA's standpoint) or until something is done to separate the NBA from the referees.

What I find funny here is that so many people claim that David Stern is some sort of genius, that the NBA is run better than the NFL or Major League Baseball could ever be. Meanwhile, Major League Baseball makes a point of overreacting to anything that even hints at changing the outcome of a game so they can be sure NO game is fixed. (The last baseball game that anyone claims was "fixed" occurred in 1919, decades before the NBA even existed.)

[Hirschof]

For example: I'm sure you're just itching to point Joey Crawford out

Actually, I wasn't even thinking about him. I've been mostly thinking of the Rockets/Mavs series a few years ago.

Even though I love the Spurs my ideas on the officiating go beyond my own team. If the Spurs wouldn't have choked twice in their last series then they wouldn't of had to worry about Crawford or any other official when the games were tied.

Whether or not any of the games were weighted in favor of one team, the entire 08' playoffs have felt.... hokey.