adciv wrote:I'm still curious as to what the worst that can happen is.
Okay. Well, step one is already happening: the erosion of trust. The NBA has millions of fans worldwide, and many sports fans applaud commissioner Stern for the job he has done as the commissioner. At the same time, many other fans are skeptical of the league, to the point that conspiracy theories (see above long-winded tirades) are everywhere among fans of certain teams. Now, one of those conspiracy theories (that the NBA had the referees fix Game 6 of the 2002 Western Conference Finals to force a financially lucrative Game 7 that involved the second biggest market in the United States) is all too real. The new revelations, along with Stern's flippant dismissals thereof, have started to raise questions among even the die-hard fans of the league.
Let's say for the sake of argument that the scandal grows and most of what's alleged turns out to be true. Fraud charges will follow. All sorts of shady characters will be uncovered in the investigations, likely including members of organized crime, local politicians, doctors behaving badly and sports agents. Let's just say that we're not going to like what we see when we turn over this stone. People involved--probably the refs themselves, but possibly league officials as well--will go to prison in a great show of "look! Someone's actually enforcing a law on the wealthy!"
Believe it or not, we're just getting started.
There could still be an NBA after that, and likely the league itself WILL survive in some respect. However, they will have real trouble putting people in the stands, allaying skepticism, and getting TV ratings. You think the NHL has it bad right now on Versus? You'll be lucky if you can see the NBA on any channel that isn't owned by the owner of an NBA team. (MyTV is owned by Mark Cuban, owner of the Dallas Mavericks. BET is owned by Charlotte Bobcats owner Robert Johnson.)
The attendance and ratings woes will mean that a lot less money comes into the league. The best players in the world will seek out leagues in Spain, Italy, Russia, Canada and maybe even China to make their millions, while the teams in the smallest markets (Salt Lake City, Sacramento, Oklahoma City, Charlotte, et cetera) will hemorrhage money until they fold. The league will shrink, and some teams will move into Europe.
Another unintended consequence: the WNBA will be at a crossroads. Remember--same people, just with female players. Nobody's going to accuse that league of rigging games because, frankly, why on Earth would someone go to the trouble? However, with many teams sharing owners with NBA franchises, there could be a mass fire sale of WNBA franchises. Suppose nobody buys those teams--they'll go kaput. What I'm trying to say is, if the NBA goes into the extreme trouble I'm describing it could kill the WNBA. At the same time, there's that .00000000001% chance that the league will see a large increase in interest once the male competition is destroyed.
The NBA already has a few rogue owners and ex-owners that would likely begin a competing basketball league in the wake of scandals. I can imagine Mark Cuban founding a league all his own very quickly, a la the old USFL. This league could either topple the NBA or entirely kill off interest in American professional basketball.
By the way, all the meanwhile the NCAA makes billions off the fall of the great league, as it stands to drive a lot of basketball fans to the college game. Kids stop playing the game in record numbers, and a bunch of speedy, lanky young athletes learn baseball, football or hockey. Attendance for Major League Baseball sees a bump. The NHL has another chance to win over American fans. The Harlem Globetrotters find a new niche in America, and may wind up with a former NBA superstar or two.
Depending on how deep the scandal goes, some other people can be hurt by it:
-Nike (Not only would they sell fewer shoes, some of their chief endorsements might be sullied in the scandal.)
-Any company owned by an NBA owner. (Scrutiny will almost certainly spill over to the owners after a while.)
-Michael Jordan, Kobe Bryant, Charles Barkley, and many others could end up having their entire careers called into question to some degree.