Russia and Georgia fighting over South Ossetia

[Martin Blank]

Yesterday, as the Olympic Games were opening, Russian tanks rolled into South Ossetia -- sovereign Georgian territory where most of the populace holds Russian passports (though only a tiny fraction are actually Russian) as Georgian forces shelled the area and moved troops into place. Russian aircraft have struck Georgian air bases, but Georgia seems to have bitten the Russian air force, with Russia admitting to two aircraft being shot down while Georgia claims ten. So far, the Georgian capital of Tbilisi seems to not be targeted, though that may change. South Ossetia itself seems to be getting the short end of the stick here, with claims of hundreds of civilians killed and thousands more fleeing to North Ossetia (which is inside Russia).

So far, it seems to be vague as to who fired the first shot, but whoever it is, it appears that neither side is especially innocent. Russia has lost several peacekeepers in recent weeks, while a Russian fighter shot down a Georgian drone that was monitoring the area. Georgian forces don't seem to be discriminating much in who they shoot at, and Russian armor has shelled civilian areas.

I'm sort of glad that Georgia hasn't yet been admitted to NATO. That could have gotten messy fast.

[adciv]

It could still get messy fast. There are claims of Russia targeting the oil pipelines out of the country. Although, so far this has only been by Georgia and no one else. One thing I find interesting is the confirmed reports that Georgia has been able to shoot down several Russian planes. I'm curious as to which ones as Georgia, given the size of it's airforce, should not have Air-Superiority.

From here, I'm somewhat worried about two things. The first is the claimed destruction of the town of Tskhinvali. The second is the language used by the Russians when referring to some of the areas. 'Liberated' is not a term usually used when taking an area from someone who is recognized as the legitimate controller.

*edit* What I consider somewhat ironic is that I started reading "Red Storm Rising" yesterday.

[ampersand]

That picture of Former Prime Minister Putin holding an AK-47 seems awfully appropriate now (it's in that gaiz thread someplace). Plus, if that pic is accurate, the guy has put on some muscle.

So, are we basically dealing with gaining more control over oil pipeline controls here, or is there something else involved as well?

[adciv]

And Russia is saying the US is behind all this. War between Russia and Georgia orchestrated from USA

[Deacon]

Awesome.

[collegestudent22]

And Russia is saying the US is behind all this.

If they can see the "US plots" behind the war, why would they go to war with Georgia instead of the US? Why on Earth would they knowingly go along with any "hidden plots" behind the US? Answer: No way in hell they would.

So why are they saying this? Probably because a bunch of dumbass European countries will believe that shit. And why would they do so, when it is obviously bull? Because it affirms their idea that the US is behind ALL of the world's problems. When really it's shit like this.

[Martin Blank]

No one in Europe believes that the US is behind this. It's got drawbacks all over the place. Georgia is withdrawing troops from Iraq. A win in Georgia could put a pro-Russia government in place (and since recent news is that Georgian forces are retreating and Russian forces are on the outskirts of Tbilisi, this is becoming more likely). It slows NATO's expansion, a key goal of the US.

The US isn't behind this. Whether it was stupidity on the part of Georgia, thinking that Russia wouldn't retaliate, or Russia invading on shaky pretenses, the conflict is local, and was started locally.

Incidentally, Georgia is almost cut off from the Internet. Key servers and network gear have apparently been under Russian control, possibly of the Russian Business Network (an organized crime group), since Thursday, before fighting broke out. Makes one wonder.

[collegestudent22]

No one in Europe believes that the US is behind this.

I guarantee that if you look hard enough, you can find someone that believes that in Europe. Granted, said person would also probably claim that Bush was behind 9/11 but still...

[ampersand]

No one in Europe believes that the US is behind this. It's got drawbacks all over the place. Georgia is withdrawing troops from Iraq. A win in Georgia could put a pro-Russia government in place (and since recent news is that Georgian forces are retreating and Russian forces are on the outskirts of Tbilisi, this is becoming more likely). It slows NATO's expansion, a key goal of the US.

The US isn't behind this. Whether it was stupidity on the part of Georgia, thinking that Russia wouldn't retaliate, or Russia invading on shaky pretenses, the conflict is local, and was started locally.

Incidentally, Georgia is almost cut off from the Internet. Key servers and network gear have apparently been under Russian control, possibly of the Russian Business Network (an organized crime group), since Thursday, before fighting broke out. Makes one wonder.

Once I read through a book entitled, While Europe Slept: How Radical Islam is Destroying the West from Within. One of Mr. Bawer's most interesting observations is how many Europeans, especially among the intellectual elitist, do believe in things quite like what the Pravda newspaper asserted of an American conspiracy among many things, particularly regarding to 9/11. While Mr. Bawer's observations had more to do with the threat of Islamic immigration into Europe, he indicates that tendency for "American bashing" is a part of the response towards the general problems that much of the continent is having.

The assertion that the United States is behind or perhaps is even to be blamed for the Georgian - Russian conflict I think has a lot more traction than what Martin believes. Perhaps, this suggestion of blame of the United States by Pravda is a reflection of "resentment at what it regards as growing western encirclement?"

[Martin Blank]

I guarantee that if you look hard enough, you can find someone that believes that in Europe. Granted, said person would also probably claim that Bush was behind 9/11 but still...

If you look hard enough, you find people who are still serious about Flat Earth Theory.

I'm watching the UN Security Council right now, and it's an interesting view of diplomacy in action. The tone is... well, diplomatic, but the wording is definitely that of concern and even perhaps some accusation.

[Martin Blank]

Some points that have been made at the UNSC and in the news:

• Georgia appears to have fired the first shot, attempting a blitzkrieg-style attack to force South Ossetia back under Tbilisi's control.
• Russia responded with heavy force, including tanks, armor, and special forces.
• Russia seems to have also entered Abkhazia, another break-away province in Georgia.
• Georgia has ordered all its forces in Iraq withdrawn, due to return by Monday, and has requested that the US provide aircraft to fly them back.
• Russia has hit several key strategic targets, including the main air base and airport in Tbilisi, a shipyard on the Black Sea coast, and possibly the main oil pipeline that runs through it which terminates in Turkey, and which carries about 1% of the world's oil.

Russia and Georgia, of course, are not especially happy with each other. Russia sits on the UNSC, and Georgia has been allowed to speak. Georgia has accused Russia openly of trying to exterminate Georgia as a state and a people, and Russia has countered that Georgia has tried to remove the identity of the Ossetian and Abkhaz peoples by declaring them all Georgians (though that was more than 15 years ago). Russia has also pointed out that many Georgians live in Russia, and have positions of leadership in industry, academia, and culture, and that they have not been threatened.

The US has referred to the Russian statement as "polemics" and called for a return to the status quo, condemning Russia's refusal to talk to Georgia's government. He has said that Russia has stated to Condi Rice that Georgia's president "must go." He has asked Russia straight forwardly if it's Russia's intention to remove Georgia's democratically-elected leadership. Russia has stated that Georgia must withdraw from South Ossetia and agree to a non-use of force agreement. Russia has condemned the revelation of a confidential phone call between senior government members, but points out that "'[r]egime change' is a US expression," and that Russia does not use the phrase. (He doesn't say that they don't accept it, just that they don't use it.)

The US has just pointedly asked the question again. Georgia has also stated that they would like a direct answer.

Russia has suggested that the US ambassador wasn't listening -- 'perhaps that he didn't have his earpiece on' was the phrasing, I think -- and said that he believes that he has given a complete answer to the question.

Personally, I thought that he dodged the question entirely, but I may just not be fluent in diplomatic-speak.

[ampersand]

I had to look up where South Ossentia was. Google Maps has nothing about what in Georgia. It's rare for Google to fail like that. Wikipedia had a lot more on Ossentia than I thought it would probably have.

I also have to wonder if some of this is part of Russia's long-standing desire to have a warm-water port someplace, or even somewhere remotely close to it?

[Martin Blank]

It's been all but confirmed that Russia has been targeting the pipeline. Local police have counted 51 impacts from Russian munitions without managing to hit it, though the article says that there are craters 100 yards on either side of the pipeline.

This sort of says something about Russia's targeting capabilities.

[adciv]

Close only counts in horseshoes and grenades... cluster bombs, area impact explosions and nuclear weapons.

The pipeline is the only source of oil and gas into eastern Europe not under Russian control (and I'll admit I almost typed Soviet there). The good news is that it is buried. The bad news is that earth caries shock waves quite well. The close hits could have already damaged the pipeline. The aftermath of all this will be interesting.

[Martin Blank]

Ukraine has announced that it may bar the Russian Navy from returning to its naval ports in the Crimea, despite a lease agreement that Russia has on the ports until 2017. This could put a severe damper on Russian activities in the Black Sea, and shows that Ukraine seems willing to risk Russia forcing its way back in.

Georgian forces have withdrawn completely from South Ossetia as Russia basically leveled the South Ossetian capital, and holed up in Gori. They've apparently repelled at least one armored advance.

The US is flying Georgian troops back home. I hope that no Russian fighters take shots at US aircraft.