Hurricane Gustav heading for Louisiana

[Martin Blank]

Hurricane Gustav, currently a Category 3 storm with good chances of reaching Category 4 before landfall, is headed straight for Louisiana, with the eye forecast to pass just west of New Orleans itself. Mandatory evacuation is underway, with a much better overall response as buses have been made available, and many thousands started leaving on their own as early as Tuesday. The US Army Corps of Engineers has been working to strengthen the levees protecting the city, but they're not even close to done, and at least some flooding is expected -- possibly including some areas that were not flooded by Katrina.

This has made for some interesting reactions.

• McCain and Palin go to Mississippi to review preparations for the storm
• Obama declines to go to minimize disruption to local emergency personnel, approves of McCain's visit, readies his campaign mailing list to ask supporters to send donations and help to the area
• Bush, Cheney to skip RNC convention
• McCain's acceptance speech may be via satellite
• Michael Moore excited at how much Gustav might be able to hurt the Republican Party
• Former DNC chairman laughing at Gustav hitting New Orleans when Bush was scheduled to speak

This storm has the capacity to do some very serious damage, potentially undoing many billions of dollars of work that was completed in the last couple of years. The past lessons seem to have sunk in for everyone more or less directly involved, and they're taking it quite seriously. The politicos of both sides are doing everything they can to find an angle on this to play up: Republicans are doing everything to boost the chances of a good (or at least a not terribly deadly) outcome; Democrats are waiting for Republicans to trip over themselves, calling up the old "heckuva job" videos and pictures of Bush at McCain's 69th birthday party during Katrina and its aftermath.

So goes election year politics.

[Deacon]

Bush, Cheney to skip RNC convention

That one honestly took me by surprise. I don't see the point of it.

[Arc Orion]

Why are they having a convention for the convention, anyway?

On a more serious note, I agree. That does seem a bit strange.

[Dante287]

Ok im english so bare with me here, is this Hurricane Gustav gonna be worse than Katrina? I know that they have started abandoning NO because I was watching it on BBC News last night, and it also said something about it being The Storm or something of the century, do those poor people not get a break? I thought they were meant to be doing something to assist them from this happeneing again,

[Martin Blank]

It's unknown whether it will be worse than Katrina. There are better preparations, but many of them were not complete. At the very least, the hospitals and nursing homes in harm's way seem to have been evacuated already so that we're less likely to see reports of doctors administering lethal doses of sedatives.

Hopefully, everyone will have cooler heads this time around.

Why are they having a convention for the convention, anyway?

RNC is short for Republican National Committee, for those who aren't aware.

[ampersand]

Well, the storm itself might strength to a Category 5 storm, but that would require the hurricane to slow up in the Gulf along its approach, which it may well do. Interesting that the general consensus track of the storm would travel to the West side of New Orleans. Katrina hit the East side, and it was the wind and the inability for its levies to retain the waters that caused the most flooding. I think the forecasters maybe right, however, if a track misses, it tends to miss heading west because Coriolis forcing (basically the rotation of the earth) moves storms on a curved path more towards the east. So there is a chance this Gustav might actually strike directly on New Orleans. Apparently both the National Weather Service and the Weather Channel's websites are having massive hit attacks due to people wanting to know what's happened, so I don't know what's happened other than Gustav is almost in New Orleans. (I may have to go to a bar to view what's happening right now.)

As for the political response, I think both parties failed.

Republicans shouldn't use it as a chance to say, "Hey, see, we're compassionate! We understand!We get it!" Democrats shouldn't look at this with a gleeful hope that it would show how incompetent the Republicans are again. I think what Obama and McCain are doing in part is good, but I wouldn't have dropped everything so that, for example, McCain's acceptance speech shouldn't be done via satellite, but Obama should have gone to New Orleans too. McCain and Obama both should have gone, both of them should have told their party supporters that now isn't the time to wish for the political demise of their rivals simply because of another natural disaster (a lot of what happened in Katrina stems back multiple Presidents and political parties --- the Louisiana state governor, legislature and mayor of New Orleans were/are still democratically controlled) nor hope that this time the disaster will change the public's perception of them (it usually doesn't, people tend to remember failures, not successes).

As mentioned before, considering the usual track of hurricanes during this time of the year, it is amazing that hurricanes have not hit this city more often.

[Arc Orion]

RNC is short for Republican National Committee, for those who aren't aware.

*Arc Orion bows his head in shame.

[Martin Blank]

Obama has said that he's not going because his mere presence might pull police from their duties and possibly lead to other emergency personnel staging close to him. The situation is the same for McCain (they're both under Secret Service protection), but Obama has said that his presence would only add to it, and that the emergency workers are best left to handle local things. I can't fault either candidate for their take on things.

The former DNC head, though, is going to have a LOT of explaining to do, especially if the death count is high or the damage scale hits billions again.

[ampersand]

And if the damage is in the billions again, it just may well be time to seriously consider moving New Orleans more inland, or just simply abandoning it completely. Then the Army Core of Engineers can demolish the levies and leave that part of Louisiana as a new wetland protection area that will have a lot of benefits, both against future hurricane attacks as well as other environmental benefits. One can not simply assume that after this, another hurricane will miss New Orleans again.

It's not going to happen, there are too many emotional and financial investments in that area, which makes it impossible not to simply abandon a metropolis region such as New Orleans.

[The Cid]

Honest question here: Is it possible New Orleans could be destroyed beyond repair one of these years? That is to say, is there a point of no return with a city that appears to be defying nature in its very existence, where the land is simply reclassified as part of the lake and the Gulf?

[Martin Blank]

A storm would have to hit as a full-force Cat 5, taking out all the levies. Personally, I think that if it happens, the higher areas like the French Quarter could be rebuilt but NOLA itself would take on a somewhat different character.

For all the money spent already, a new city on safe ground could have been built.

[collegestudent22]

Hopefully after this one destroys most of the rebuilding that has been done, people will stop acting like lemmings and build the city elsewhere instead of "jumping off the cliff."

[ampersand]

Hmm...considering the Army Corp of Engineers have spent only $3 billion of a total $12 billion towards levy repair (source), and not all of repair work is finished yet, it may not take a Category 5 storm to take out the rest of the levies.

It's looking like (finally get through to weather.gov) Gustav will remain a Category 3 storm, and I think it will hit the west side of the city, but not a direct hit. Still, the upper wind patterns can change and the storm could veer off in another direction altogether. But it doesn't look like that will be the case.

[Martin Blank]

cs22 doesn't get his wish to see thousands more people suffer. The hurricane-force winds appear to have missed New Orleans, or at least most of it. Gustav is currently Cat 2, declining to Cat 1 sometime today, and then to a tropical storm tonight. Residents of Dallas seem to be in the path of some rain at the end of this week.

[collegestudent22]

cs22 doesn't get his wish to see thousands more people suffer.

That isn't my wish. At least to my knowledge, almost everyone in New Orleans (and most of the rest of Louisiana, for that matter) had evacuated. What I wish is that people would wake up and realize that they should build the fucking city elsewhere, or thousands more people WILL suffer. Maybe not from Gustav, (although you seem to be ignoring the fact that Hannah is right on its tail, and may become a hurricane as well) but from another hurricane in the future. Suffering that could easily be avoided by placing the city further inland in Louisiana.