Major scientific underpinning for Kyoto found flawed

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Martin Blank
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Major scientific underpinning for Kyoto found flawed

Post by Martin Blank » Wed Nov 05, 2003 7:16 pm

The 1998 study by Mann, Bradley and Hughes (known as MBH98) which provided a significant reason for the Kyoto Protocol has been found to be seriously flawed. A rigorous review by Steven McIntyre and Ross McKitrick of MBH98 (known as MM03), available freely at the website for the journal Energy & Environment, finds that MBH98 "contains collation errors, unjustifiable truncation or extrapolation of source data, obsolete data, geographical location errors, incorrect calculation of principal components and other quality control defects."

The result is best shown on the following graph. The dark line is from the original paper; the red line is from the data revisited by MM03, showing that not only is the 20th century not the warmest on record since 1400, but that global average temperatures spiked much higher than the 20th century on two occasions in the 1400s.

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So what's causing the increase in temperature that has been seen? Could be solar activity; German scientists have reported that since 1940 there has been a significant increase in sunspot activity over the normal levels. More sunspot activity means more output from the sun, and even a tiny increase of a fraction of a percent can cause significant changes in the amount of energy the earth receives.

This Canadian National Post article also points out that MBH98 directly contradicted most of the existing scientific literature at the time.

I'm all for cutting back on CO2 emissions, because it means less petroleum use, and less of other pollutants that get out when coal burns. I'm in favor of about $20B a year being spent over the next 25 years on replacing all of the coal- and oil-fired power plants in the US with new nuclear reactors, which offer less pollution and lower radiation output. But let's base it all on real, verifiable science, and not on flawed, singular studies.

Don't forget -- 25 years ago, the worry was that growing pollution was bringing on a new ice age.
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Post by Deacon » Wed Nov 05, 2003 7:47 pm

:oops:

Heh...wait a minute! That doesn't speak negatively of Bush! It can't possibly be true...
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Post by Blaze » Wed Nov 05, 2003 8:45 pm

I had heard much of this some time back. The general conclusion I've worked around to is that yes, we are having an effect on the greenhouse climate, but no, we are not RESPONSIBLE for it. Any changes we make will only be successful in as much as removing our effect.
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Post by Martin Blank » Wed Nov 05, 2003 8:50 pm

Actually, this suggests that we are having little to no effect on things. Remember when the Indonesian rain forests burned a few years ago? That released 2.6 billion tons of carbon into the atmosphere, much of it as carbon dioxide. No significant temperature spikes that year or the next.
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Post by Deacon » Wed Nov 05, 2003 10:42 pm

MB is, of course, correct.
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Post by 0bb3 » Wed Nov 05, 2003 10:51 pm

It's hard to tell if the greenhouse is correct or not, I mean the scientific world hasn't agreed on this issue. However, the pollution from cars, industries and farms is still a problem it isn't just the greenhouse effect that is the issue. The ozon layer, rain forests, the lakes that become sour e t c e t c.
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Post by Martin Blank » Wed Nov 05, 2003 10:58 pm

I fully agree with you for once, 0bb3. There has been far too much attention paid on CO2, when sulfur dioxides and other nasty things have been ignored.

On the greenhouse gasses, there is scant evidence that it is a sizable effect, and growing evidence that there are other forces at play with far more to say about the results.
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Post by Fixer » Thu Nov 06, 2003 3:05 pm

Martin, I had not thought of this before. What would the results of a thin ozone layer be on animals that had fur? Perhaps our thinning of the ozone layer is just a way for the Earth to rid itself of a rather pesky organism (Man).

Just a thought.
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Post by Martin Blank » Thu Nov 06, 2003 3:52 pm

A thin ozone layer would probably not affect them as much, as most of the UV rays would hit the fur, which is dead, and not make it to the skin, where it can cause cancer. The increase in the thinning of the layer has been slowing since the ban on CFCs went into place, although it will probably be some time until the layer begins to return to its prior levels.

However, the ozone layer is a separate issue from global warming.
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Post by Fixer » Thu Nov 06, 2003 8:01 pm

True, but it was just a brain fart I had and was wondering about. Thanks!
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Post by Mr.Shroom » Fri Nov 07, 2003 1:41 am

More for Fixer: I was privvy to an interview to the original scientist who brought up the issue of the ozone layer. He was at first labeled a hack, then hailed as a hero. In this interview, the interviewer asked the gentleman what he thought of the attempts to repair the damage and prevent further affects to global weather and climate. He said simply and honestly: "Its already too late."

MB, the real question could also be: Is this natural? Studies of OTHER planets (or even micro-environments under controls) could suggest that gradual temperature increases of a biosphere are simply a biproduct of having waste-producing organisims or environmental conditions that have similar effects. Are we only speeding up whats supposed to happen? Is that unnatural, since we are, for better or worse, an equally active part of this globe?

Keep in mind, perhaps, that I'm one that thinks that the fact we lead other species into extinction is a rather harsh part of reality. Let alone our own extinction.

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Post by Martin Blank » Fri Nov 07, 2003 2:47 am

We're actually coming out of what has been called a Little Ice Age, where temperatures cooled significantly after what is known as a Medieval Warming Period, where temps were much warmer than normal for a few hundred years, including those spikes in the 1400s.
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Post by Mr.Shroom » Fri Nov 07, 2003 3:05 am

Case in point then. I'm just glad that we have a few souls who keep track of these things, and aren't afraid to scream their lungs off if they're shouted down or pushed aside. Even if its by me. :)

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Post by mikehendo » Tue Nov 11, 2003 8:18 am

even though global warming isnt a "problem" the brown clouds over many cities are still not a good thing :(
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Re: Major scientific underpinning for Kyoto found flawed

Post by tankkisankari » Tue Nov 11, 2003 3:10 pm

I had some extra time on my hands and went looking what was the replys that M&M got from their work.
[quote="Martin Blank";p="207105"]The 1998 study by Mann, Bradley and Hughes (known as MBH98) which provided a significant reason for the Kyoto Protocol has been found to be seriously flawed. A rigorous review by Steven McIntyre and Ross McKitrick of MBH98 (known as MM03), available freely at the website for the journal Energy & Environment, finds that MBH98 "contains collation errors, unjustifiable truncation or extrapolation of source data, obsolete data, geographical location errors, incorrect calculation of principal components and other quality control defects." [/quote]

Apparently there was some mistakes in M&M's work, they had used propably accidentally false data in their work regarding the 15 centyry period.
http://www.cru.uea.ac.uk/~timo/paleo/
Unfortunately neither MM03 nor the journal in which it was published took the necessary step of investigating (with Mann, Bradley or Hughes) whether the difference between MM03 results and MBH98 could be explained simply by some error or set of errors in MM03's use of the data or in their implementation of the MBH98 method. This should have been an essential step to take in a case such as this where the difference in results is so large and important. Especially when the MM03 results, regarding a warm 15th century, were also at odds with the many other reconstructions that have been published, not just at odds with MBH98. Simple errors should first be ruled out prior to publication.
Here is some other funny stuff:
http://www.davidappell.com/archives/00000372.htm
Canadian business executive Stephen McIntyre and economist Ross McKitrick have presented more evidence that the 20th century wasnâ??t the warmest on record. In their article for the journal Energy and the Environment, McIntyre and McKitrick cited numerous errors in data used in Mann, et al. (1998), a temperature record that has been frequently cited by global warming alarmists.

Note the words Business executive and Economist, wow, these guys are experts in climate study. :)

These are the nice people that published the M&M study.
Energy and Environment's editor, Sonja Boehmer-Christiansen, admits that her political biases--which are anti-Kyoto --influence what papers she publishes.
This just goes to show that politics affect the world of science.

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