An awareness test

Post by **Blaze** » Tue Dec 23, 2003 8:23 am

This is a simple awareness test I've constructed because I'm interested to see how many of us are capable of picking through facts and figures and scientific inquiries for what really matters. It may have holes in it or what have you, but the basic idea is right. All items listed herin are fictional.

Please do not reply with a post telling which you think it is until I say so. I want people to do this on their own. HOPEFULLY we'll end up with a perfect 100% correct rating here.

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In an effort to prove video and computer games are problematic to society, an organization of concerned parents organized a specific study to gain facts for a courtroom battle that would, they hoped, limit video game content.

100 prisoners from 100 different prisons all throughout the US were questioned. These prisoners had all been conviced of varying levels of violent crime and were serving minimum 5 year sentances. Some as much as life sentances. The prisoners were asked:

1) Have you ever played video or computer games?
2) Have you ever played violent video or computer games?
3) Did you ever play video or computer games on a regular basis?
4) Did you ever play violent video or computer games on a regular basis?

The results were as follows.

1) 88% yes : 12% no
2) 80% yes : 20% no
3) 64% yes : 46% no
4) 60% yes : 40% no

Which of the following claims can now be made in court?

dmpotter · Post by **dmpotter** » Tue Dec 23, 2003 8:36 am

I know what you're getting at. The problem with those figures that prevent them from being any real use is that we're missing 100 people who haven't committed violent crimes and their answers to those questions. Because of that, only one of the statements can actually be made - no other facts can be determined.

Hopefully that's vague enough not to give anything away... Maybe it's a hint?

Shyknight · Post by **Shyknight** » Tue Dec 23, 2003 8:51 am

People who try to abuse statistics in order to demonize videogames need to find a new hobby. Their idiotic blame game needs to stop, or they'll see how well those violent games have trained me how to kill. I think I'll bludgeon them all to death with an X-Box.

dmpotter · Post by **dmpotter** » Tue Dec 23, 2003 9:05 am

Well, whatever answer you want, it isn't going to be 100% now... Oh well. It'll be interesting to see how people came to their conclusions once the official answer is posted. (And to see if I'm right, which of course I am.

)

YH · Post by YH » Tue Dec 23, 2003 1:03 pm

Since when were such inquiries "scientific"? You need a control.

Blokeymon · Post by **Blokeymon** » Tue Dec 23, 2003 1:12 pm

All that says is that 80% of nutters have at some time, played violent games.

That's almost like asking:
We asked 100 people who've hit someone while driving a car, and killed them, if they'd seen Death Race 2000.
80% said Yes.
20% said No.

All you can summise is that 80% of people who've killed someone in a car have seen a film.

You could ask ANY question and get the same answer.

Have you ever owned a dog?
Have you ever eaten halibut?
Have you ever used a hatstand to hold more than just a hat?
Have you ever been caught whacking off by a parent/guardian/teacher/man in the street?

Prospero · Post by **Prospero** » Tue Dec 23, 2003 3:32 pm

I saw Death Race 2000!

It was such a sucky movie.

document · Post by **document** » Tue Dec 23, 2003 3:34 pm

I heard a statistic where all these prisoners were asked whether they looked at pornography on a regular basis prior to their committing a violent act. More than 95 percent of them said yes. So is it pornography or violent video games? You cannot draw a conclusion off of 100 prisoners...these statistics are created to convince the ignorant mothers.

Fishmonger · Post by **Fishmonger** » Tue Dec 23, 2003 5:36 pm

I wonder how many of those prisoners have read the bible or attended church. My guess is that most of them have, and no one until me had the balls to blame the bible for violent crimes.

Craig

Sir Spankspeople · Post by **Sir Spankspeople** » Tue Dec 23, 2003 6:28 pm

and no one until me had the balls to blame the bible for violent crimes.

*cough*inquisition*cough*

document · Post by **document** » Tue Dec 23, 2003 6:29 pm

Yes I believe that you were not the first, considering the majority of violence in the middle ages is blamed upon certain interpretations of the Bible.

Post by **Blaze** » Tue Dec 23, 2003 8:06 pm

As I said, this is all fictional. It's a subject I chose because I knew it would get people interested.

This is an exceptionally simple test. I'm just interested to see how many people shouldn't be allowed to watch the news.

Fixer · Post by **Fixer** » Tue Dec 23, 2003 8:09 pm

So far, it would seem one.

Post by **Blaze** » Wed Dec 24, 2003 2:28 am

Alright, we've hit 21 votes, which is probobly a majority of the people who would bother to vote anyway.

I'm pleased to see 18 out of 21 people realized that this test shows that most violent criminals have played computer or video games.

I am also pleased to see EVERYBODY realized you can't put a statistical value with anything from this.

However, I'm upset to see the following.

2 people have decided this information shows a scientific link between Video Games and Violent Crime.

1 person has decided this shows that Video Games tend to lead to violent crime.

Both of these are incorrect for similar reasons. Those reasons are that this study was not truly scientific, and that it therefore can be applied to anything.

THe study was not scientific because it did not include any other groups. We are very likely to find that people who've not been in prison have a fairly equal percentage of gamers for violent and non-violent games, habitually and non. Until we test this group, this information is meaningless.

The study did not show that games tend to lead to violent behavior because there are lots of factors we could put in there. I bet most of those criminals have eaten pizza too. Does that show that pizza tends to cause violent behavior? Obviously not.

I have performed this test for my own gratification to prove that most people have some base semblance of intelligence, and to show you all to be careful when examining "facts". Expect more tests to follow.

dmpotter · Post by **dmpotter** » Wed Dec 24, 2003 3:11 am

Hmm... I feel like flushing this out with some more fictional data to show what you would need to do in order to make this imaginary study a valid study. (Or at least a more valid study.)

So, in addition to asking the prisoners the questions, the study asked a random group of 100 people from the same cities as the prisoners the same four questions. These people all had clean records, none of them having commited any felonies or having been suspected in any cases.

For reference, the questions are:

Have you ever played video or computer games?
Have you ever played violent video or computer games?
Did you ever play video or computer games on a regular basis?
Did you ever play violent video or computer games on a regular basis?

The results of the study came as follows:

83% Yes (17% No)
76% Yes (24% No)
23% Yes (77% No)
15% Yes (85% No)

This data would demonstrate that there is no correlation between criminals and playing video games, but that there is a correlation between criminals and playing violent video games. (Keep in mind this is fictional.)

However, even though a correlation has been established by such a study, no causation would have been demonstrated.

The simple example of this is the fact that there is a correlation between ice cream sales and incidents of violent crimes. As ice cream sales rise, the number of violent crimes increases. As it decreases, violent crime decreases.

However, as most people can tell, ice cream does not cause violent crime. What does help cause violent crime is warm weather, allowing people to be out more often. Sometimes hot weather can inflame hot tempers. The warmer weather also makes people more likely to buy ice cream. So while there is correlation, there is no causation.

Anyway, to finish off the example, take a new set of data:

83% Yes (17% No)
76% Yes (24% No)
65% Yes (35% No)
58% Yes (42% No)

These results indicate that there is no correlation between violent crime and playing violent video games when combined with the above data.

Mind you, such a study can only establish correlation. It cannot establish causation - just like the aforementioned data that establishes the correlation between ice cream sales and violent crimes.

There really is no good way to establish causation other than to somehow remove (or equalize) all other stimuli other than violent video games. I'd love to know a study that could successfully demonstrate causation because I can't really determine a good study.

The important thing to remember from this "lesson" is that correlation does not prove causation.

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